Race for the Heisman Starts Early: Top 5 Contenders

Written for Chalk Them Up.
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Change is ingrained in college football’s DNA. From the recent shakeups of NCAA conferences (Pac-12, Big Ten, Mountain West) to new coaches taking over for various programs (Florida, Stanford, Michigan) and juniors and seniors jumping to the NFL Draft as usual, there is ample evidence to support that fact this off-season.

Despite all of the upheaval, there remain two things you can count on in the college game in 2011: 1) everyone will still rail against the BCS system and 2) a new Heisman Trophy winner will be crowned in December.

With the college football season four months away, it is never too early to run down a list of potential Heisman contenders for the coming year. Auburn’s Cam Newton was awarded the latest trophy and went on to declare for the Draft after defeating Oregon for the National Championship. The Heisman spotlight will undoubtedly shift to another star in the college ranks this season, but the question is who will be able to withstand the pressure throughout a twelve game schedule? Here is a list, with some explanation of the five most likely hopefuls as I see them right now:

5. Trent Richardson: Alabama, RB (Junior)

I know Richardson might currently seem to be a long shot to earn the Heisman, but now in his third season playing for Nick Saban, and with no Mark Ingram, this would be the time for him to establish himself as the best in college football. Ingram is the most recent member of the Crimson Tide to win the award, and while Richardson’s numbers were not stellar last season (700 yards rushing, six touchdowns), there is room to grow as a leader of that offense. He is by no means a lock to make it to New York, which is why he is fifth here. But without Ingram as a starter, Richardson has the chance to put up more impressive numbers and catch the attention of Heisman voters early. Also: should he win, Trent would become the fourth SEC player in the last five years (and the third consecutive from the state of Alabama) to join the Heisman fraternity.

4. Denard Robinson: Michigan, QB (Junior)

No Tate Forcier. No true competition for the starting spot (unless you’ve heard of Steve Wilson, Devin Gardner or Jack Kennedy and live outside of Ann Arbor). While Robinson won’t have to worry about being replaced under center, his toughest challenge – and what might well keep him from the Heisman – will be adjusting to new head coach Brady Hoke and his system. Read my other article to find out how the new Wolverines head coach and staff plans to work with Robinson this season. If nothing else, one plus for “Shoelace” is that he led Michigan in both passing and rushing stats last year, but look for a different approach with the quarterback position, at least to start the year.

3. Landry Jones: Oklahoma, QB (Junior)

You can’t have a list of the top five college football players with potential to win the Heisman and neglect to include Jones, who plays for the team many believe will be number one in the preseason polls. Jones is returning to the Sooners for his junior season and is trying to capitalize on a superb statistical year (65 percent completion rating, over 4,700 total yards of offense and a 146 QB rating). But the Big 12 should be vastly improved in 2011, at least when it comes to main rival Texas, who is looking for Case McCoy (Colt’s younger brother) to serve as backup to emerging signal caller Garrett Gilbert. And, come, on, the Longhorns have to improve from their beyond dismal 5-7 (2-6) mark last year. We still don’t know the Sooners conference schedule, but no matter what, the Oklahoma offense will have to run through Jones and standout wide-receiver Ryan Broyles. Despite ranking third in passing offense last season, I still wonder what will happen if Jones has to rely heavily on only one main target. Broyles accounted for 131 receptions and 14 touchdowns in 2010, but no other Sooners receiver had more than 61 catches.

2. LaMichael James: Oregon, RB (Junior)

James was invited to New York last year, along with a couple of other West Coast contenders in Andrew Luck and Kellen Moore. The Heisman is usually (unofficially) reserved for juniors and seniors – unless you ask Tim Tebow – so with another year in Chip Kelly’s lightning quick offense, LaMichael should gain even more recognition. Wide receiver Jeff Maehl is no longer a part of the Oregon program, and even though Darron Thomas still has Lavasier Tuinei and David Paulson as throwing targets, more of the offense should go through James on the ground. A potential roadblock could be that only two running backs (Reggie Bush in 2005 and Mark Ingram in 2009) have won the Heisman since 2000. This would be the second time in as many years that James would be invited to New York, but I think he comes up short once again.

1. Andrew Luck: Stanford, QB (Senior)

I think we all knew where this list was heading, and in my mind, the final destination for the 2011 Heisman is located somewhere in Palo Alto, California in Andrew Luck’s apartment. Had Luck declared for the draft, he most likely would be headed for Carolina and the worst team in the NFL. Instead, he has an opportunity in his final college season to lead the Cardinal to the inaugural Pac-12 Championship, possibly gain a spot in the National Championship and claim the school’s first Heisman since Jim Plunkett did so in 1970. The Cardinal certainly missed Toby Gerhart last year, and that placed even more pressure on Luck. Yes, David Shaw is a new head coach, which could be a red flag for the Stanford QB’s chances, but tight end Coby Fleener and wideout Chris Owusu remain to help Luck offensively, and as long as he can survive the Oregon game (at Stanford Stadium on November 12), Luck will have a better ending to his New York trip in 2011.