If you were to have asked media members from coast to coast what Pac-10 conference game was the marquee matchup of the season, chances are a large majority would have answered California-USC. But nobody could have predicted that both teams would hold losses this early in the season, which diminishes the contests in the eyes of some fans and writers. But the prospect of fighting to either retain or regain in-conference legitimacy for both teams, respectively, makes this Week 4 tilt even more appealing than it might have been otherwise. The winner becomes the favorite to be crowned king of the conference, while the loser could be gunning for something like Poinsettia Bowl at the end of the 2009 season. Say what you will, poinsettias are not the same as roses.
Here are three keys to this weekend’s game:
1. Freshman Sensation: With the unfortunate accident sustained by running back Stafon Johnson, more of the offensive responsibility will fall on the shoulders of one Matt Barkley. He is the first true freshman to start in the history of that program.
Southern Cal’s game at Husky Stadium was the lone contest in which number 7 did not play, and the Trojans looked inept for three-plus quarters under the direction of Aaron Corp. Add to that the fact that this is the biggest game for Barkley since playing in the Horseshoe, and the pressure lies with the USC signal caller. Pete Carroll has not yet asked Barkley to win games for his program this year, but with one less running back, the Bears might want to prepare for a few more pass attempts when playing defense. As a side note, do not underestimate the emotional impact that Johnson’s injury will have on USC in a positive way. Expect extra energy from the Trojans on the field Saturday.2. Rely on Riley: I know it sounds strange to expect California – a team whose entire offensive success or failure has been predicated on their star running back – to need a solid performance from Kevin Riley. Riley has only five passing touchdowns all season, with his last score through the air coming in Week 2 against Eastern Washington. If California expects to beat USC for the first time in six seasons, it will have to be with Riley’s arm and not Best’s legs. A year ago, Best was held to a paltry thirty yards at the Coliseum and last week only gained 55 against a less-stout Oregon defense. Despite being at the top of some Heisman polls a couple of weeks ago, Jahvid will be facing the toughest opposing run defense of the season, and he shouldn’t be able to pull of the 80-plus yard plays as he did in the first few weeks. Compounding the offensive issues for California is the loss of wide receiver Nyan Boateng, who is out for the next three to five weeks with a broken foot. Not the best of circumstances for the Bears, especially given that the Trojan defense has allowed an average of ten points this year.
3. I’ll Take That, Thanks: If there is one thing that the Golden Bears cannot afford to do on Saturday, it is commit turnovers. Luckily for Jeff Tedford, his team has only three all season long (one at Minnesota and two last week). Conversely, the Trojans have forced six of their own through four games.
In the past twenty-plus games in which California forces more turnovers than its commits, they have only lost twice. Incidentally, that second defeat came last week, when the Bears took the ball away three times to Oregon’s twice. Perhaps the most costly opportunity that was squandered was the Josh Hill play that was mentioned in Monday’s post. As history has proven, USC is always ready to take full advantage of the small mistakes other teams make. In order to stay competitive this weekend, the Golden Bears need to hold on to the football.Prediction: the Bears can’t deliver defensively for the second consecutive week and lose their first game in Memorial Stadium since 2007. Trojans 27, Bears 21.
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